The aluminium beverage can industry has a strong blueprint for circularity, but success will require coordinated collective effort. The International Aluminium Institute (IAI)’s Can-to-Can Recycling: Performance, Potential and Pathways factsheet highlights how aluminium can-to-can recycling has the potential to accelerate circularity and outlines a transformative pathway towards supporting the International Energy Agency’s goal of achieving net zero by 2050. 

To understand the scale of this opportunity – and the urgency of action required – it is essential to explore both the immense potential and the current limitations of aluminium can recycling, which can be solved in the future on a global scale, Marlen Bertram, director of scenario forecasts at the IAI, writes in this article for The Metal Packager

Maximising value 

By 2030, we will be consuming a staggering 630 billion aluminium beverage cans worldwide, which is a 43% leap from 420 billion in 2020. Recycling every single one of those 630 billion cans, even into other products, could slash greenhouse gas emissions by 60 million tonnes annually.

However, we are falling short. While 71% of aluminium cans do get recycled, only a third actually become cans again. Currently, 38% of cans are recycled into products such as engine blocks which, due to incompatible alloying elements, means they would never be able to return as a beverage can. Some other cans are used as de-oxidisers for steel production, where the metal properties are lost. This breaks the circularity loop. 

The solution is clear: we must dramatically scale up and incentivise the market to move to can-to-can recycling to truly close the loop. Therefore, at the IAI, we are calling for a global action to aim for 87% of recycled aluminium cans (in the next 5-10 years) to be recycled back into cans, maximising both material and economic value.

A recycler’s dream

There are several reasons why the aluminium industry is perfectly positioned to act as a template for other industries to achieve circularity.

Firstly, aluminium is a recycler’s dream. It can be recycled repeatedly without any loss of quality, with nearly 75% of the 1.5 billion tonnes of aluminium ever produced still in circulation today. Over 70% of aluminium cans are recycled globally, and 33% are recycled directly into new cans. Secondly, losses for sorting, re-processing, and thermal processing are low, averaging around 10%, and in some cases are as low as 3-5%. Thirdly, can-to-can recycling is also an established part of the beverage can supply chain. 

According to the Can Manufacturers Institute, aluminum beverage cans remain the most recycled drink package in America, with a rapid 60-day journey from recycling bin to newly formed can. This efficiency is critical because a streamlined supply chain minimises waste, reduces transportation costs, and ensures that materials are properly managed and repurposed, ultimately closing the loop and supporting a circular economy.

Unlocking higher can-to-can recycling rates

Increasing the global UBC recycled content of aluminium cans from today’s 33% to the 60–70% range is achievable without altering remelter operations or changing can alloys. Within this range, a global 62% rate has been set as the milestone. To achieve this rate, we would need  87% of recycled aluminium cans to be recycled back into cans. 

By incorporating pre-consumer scrap, aluminium beverage cans can achieve a total recycled content of 80% or more globally. The specific scrap mix – whether UBC or pre-consumer scrap – depends on the sourcing opportunities available to each plant.However, realising this intermediate step towards full circularity requires the implementation of comprehensive policies and regulatory frameworks that actively reduce alloy contamination at source, establish regional can-to-can recycling hubs, prevent valuable scrap leakage from the circular system, increase consumer awareness, and incentivise best practices throughout the entire value chain.

Above and beyond 60-70 UBC recycled content will require smarter alloy design 

Realising an even higher potential of a full circular economy, where 100% of all cans put on the market are cycled back into cans, requires a sophisticated approach to optimise alloy design, the establishment of clean and efficient recycling streams, and the development of robust infrastructure systems that effectively retain valuable materials within the production cycle. 

Therefore, we must transition together towards uni-alloy or compatible alloy systems that facilitate seamless can-to-can recycling at the remelter together with high collection rates and high quality UBC scrap. This transformation must be accompanied by the systematic expansion of global recycling infrastructure, incorporating advanced sorting technologies and processing capabilities that can handle diverse waste streams efficiently. 

Only through this multi-faceted approach can the aluminium industry fully unlock its potential as a cornerstone of the circular economy, delivering both environmental benefits and economic value while setting a precedent for other materials to follow.

A collective effort 

So, how can we achieve this transformation? At COP 28, aluminium leaders set a near 100% recycling target for aluminium beverage cans by 2050 prioritising can-to-can recycling.

Now, 18 months on, at the IAI we have bolstered the foundations put in place at COP 28 with a three-tier pathway to 2050: 

• Under current practices (33% can-to-can recycling), 420 billion cans would yield 207 billion new cans by 2050.
• With today’s overall recycling rate of 71% and raising the amount of recycled cans going back into cans from 47% to 87%  (62% can-to-can), the same could generate 685 billion cans.
• A shift to recycling-friendly alloy design, close to 100% collection and universal high quality UBC scrap (95% can-to-can) could enable production of nearly six trillion cans from the same input.

However, this must be a collective effort. Aluminium producers, recyclers, rolling mills, can makers, NGOs and industry associations with the support of governments all have a duty to collaborate on our journey to closing the loop. 

This is particularly relevant given the significant disparities in industry maturity and technological capabilities across global markets. For example, while the US achieves a world-leading 97% of all cans recycled going closed-loop recycling, its overall can recycling rate is only 43%. On the other spectrum in Vietnam with a recycling rate of 93% only 1% of all cans recycled are recycled back into cans due to export duties and market conditions that hinder can-to-can recycling. Then there is Thailand, which recycles 91% of cans recycled back into cans, and has among the highest recycling rates of 86%. Challenges – and successes – vary significantly from region to region. 

Therefore, coordinated action and knowledge transfer between developed and emerging economies is not merely beneficial; it is essential for achieving meaningful progress toward a truly circular economy.