The German aluminium industry has started 2026 under significant strain, with first-quarter production data showing no signs of a cyclical economic recovery. According to the latest figures released by the industry association Aluminium Deutschland (AD), central market segments remain locked in a downward trend, driven by high domestic structural costs, weak demand, and tightening scrap markets.

Production Slump Across Key Segments

Total production volumes for both the recycling and semi-finished product sectors dipped in Q1 2026 compared to the previous year.

• Recycling Aluminium: Total recycling volumes fell by 3% to 684,564 tonnes. While refiners managed a modest 2% increase (reaching 128,639 tonnes), remelters saw a sharp 4% drop to 555,925 tonnes, dragging down the overall segment.
• Aluminium Semi-Finished Products: Overall output dipped by 1% to 568,688 tonnes. Within this sector, rolled products—crucial for packaging and various industrial applications—softened slightly by 1% to 452,894 tonnes. Meanwhile, extruded products plummeted by 4% to 115,794 tonnes, heavily impacted by ongoing stagnation in the automotive and construction sectors.

“The current figures show that the aluminium industry continues to operate in a difficult economic and structural environment,” stated AD President Rob van Gils. “Isolated positive developments do not change the fact that core segments are under intense pressure.”

Scrap Shortages and Grim Corporate Outlook

Compounding the production drop is a severe supply bottleneck in raw materials. An overwhelming 85% of companies report a shortage of aluminium scrap, posing a direct threat to the recycling economy, which relies on scrap to ensure resource-efficient and competitive production.

A recent industry survey underlines deep-seated pessimism among manufacturers:

• 66% of companies rate their current order books as “poor” or “very poor.”
• 71% report low capacity utilization.
• 57% do not expect any business improvement before the end of 2026.

Furthermore, 76% of surveyed firms believe it is currently improbable or impossible to achieve Germany’s 2045 climate neutrality targets while simultaneously maintaining industrial production within the country.

Structural Deindustrialization Risks

In response to the prolonged crisis, German aluminium companies are increasingly resorting to cost-cutting measures, capacity reductions, and plant closures. Job cuts in Germany are currently the most frequently cited measure, raising alarms that vital industrial value chains, technical know-how, and future investments could permanently migrate abroad.

AD Managing Director Angelika El-Noshokaty warned that the current crisis goes far beyond temporary cyclical dips.

“The situation in the aluminium industry shows that we are not dealing with a short-term weakness in individual segments, but rather with a threat to the industrial substance of Germany as a manufacturing hub,” El-Noshokaty said. “High costs, weak demand, scarce raw materials, and growing regulation are burdening companies simultaneously.”

Industry Demands Political Intervention

Aluminium remains an indispensable material for European core industries—spanning automotive, aerospace, defense, energy, and consumer packaging. To halt the migration of production and preserve German jobs, AD is calling on policymakers to urgently establish competitive energy prices, slash bureaucratic red tape, improve scrap availability, and provide long-term planning security.