North American aluminium demand fell 4.1% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, raising fresh concerns across the industry as companies continue to grapple with the long-term effects of Trump’s trade policies and the prospect of new blanket tariffs.

According to the Aluminum Association’s latest Aluminum Situation report, total demand in the US and Canada reached an estimated 6.53 billion pounds through Q1—down from 6.83 billion pounds in the same period last year. 

The decline follows a brief post-pandemic rebound in 2024 but has been aggravated by ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.

“A healthy US aluminium industry is essential to America’s economic security and national defence,” said Charles Johnson, president & CEO of the Aluminum Association. 

“Demand has softened in the first quarter following a demand rebound in 2024. We’ll continue to track the market carefully to see if these trends continue or accelerate. Critically, the industry is calling for a targeted trade policy that addresses unfair trade while enabling access to abundant and affordable metal. Not a 50% across-the-board tariff that drives down demand for our products.”

The report shows:

• Domestic shipments from U.S. and Canadian producers declined 6.7% year-to-date through April.
• Aluminium ingot shipments for casting and export purposes plunged 15%.
• Aluminium mill product shipments contracted 2.3%.
• Scrap inventories surged 18.9% in April, as manufacturers shifted to recycled material in response to rising raw aluminium costs.
• Imports of aluminium and related products jumped 40.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q1, as firms stockpiled ahead of expected new tariffs.

The Trump administration’s initial aluminium tariffs, implemented in 2018 under Section 232, were credited with helping to drive more than $10 billion in domestic aluminium investment over the past decade—more than half of it announced since 2021. Industry leaders have supported those targeted policies, but they now warn that broader, less strategic tariffs could undermine those gains.

“A healthy aluminium industry is essential to U.S. economic and national security,” Johnson added. “We’re calling on policymakers to support trade practices that protect against unfair dumping but still ensure access to the metal we need to grow and compete.”

The Aluminum Situation report is one of more than two dozen ongoing statistical reports issued by the Aluminum Association, offering exclusive industry insights based on surveys of North American producers, recyclers, and fabricators.