The German aluminium industry has issued a stark warning about the future of the country’s industrial competitiveness, as production continues to decline across key segments. According to new figures from Aluminium Deutschland e. V. (AD), aluminium production in Germany in the third quarter of 2025 reached only 76.5–87% of 2021 levels, underscoring a sustained contraction since that year.

Weak demand, high energy costs, and what the association describes as unfavourable policy conditions have intensified pressure on producers. A recent AD member survey shows that 28% of companies are planning or have already begun job cuts, while 13% are considering relocating production abroad.

“The situation in the aluminium industry is dire,” said AD President Rob van Gils. “To survive, companies must restructure: capacity reductions, relocations, and job cuts cannot be ruled out. Well-paid industrial jobs are at stake. If the industry is not strengthened by policymakers, this will also lead to a loss of prosperity in Germany.”

Recycling remained the most stable segment of the industry in the third quarter of 2025. From July to September, companies produced almost 695,000 tonnes of aluminium (+2%). For the first nine months of the year, total production reached around 2.1 million tonnes, 1% below the previous year and 15% below 2021 levels.

According to AD, the main challenges were weak demand from customer industries and a shortage of aluminium scrap.

Production of semi-finished aluminium products remained largely unchanged in the third quarter at around 593,000 tonnes (+/– 0%), bringing total output for the first three quarters to 1.8 million tonnes (+1%).

Within this segment, rolled products increased by 2% year-on-year to 1.4 million tonnes, but remained 13% below 2021. Extruded products declined by 1% to 362,000 tonnes, still 23.5% below 2021 levels.

AD attributes these figures to weakness in customer sectors such as mechanical engineering and automotive, as well as to poor economic policy conditions in Germany. Less than a third of surveyed companies expect positive effects from recent government decisions on electricity cost relief.

In addition, the association warns that the planned introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on 1 January 2026 could further increase costs and strain competitiveness.

After years of employment growth that brought headcounts above pre-pandemic levels in 2024, many aluminium producers are now under pressure to reduce capacity. According to AD’s survey, 28% of companies are cutting capacity in Germany, and 3% are initiating production shutdowns.

“Politicians must step up,” said AD CEO Angelika El-Noshokaty. “Competitive framework conditions are essential. Industrial, energy, climate, and trade policies all require urgent action. Without decisive political support, Germany risks permanently losing its importance as an industrial location. A strong industrial sector and the well-paid jobs associated with it are essential for long-term prosperity.”

The latest data confirm that the German aluminium industry continues to operate below capacity, with no near-term recovery in sight. Recycling remains comparatively stable, but weak demand, high energy prices, and new regulatory burdens continue to weigh on the sector.

According to Aluminium Deutschland, urgent political measures are needed to preserve Germany’s role as one of Europe’s key aluminium production locations.